Methodology
How the Dream11 Zone editorial desk sources its data, runs its prediction model and publishes its picks.
01 What methodology means here
Methodology on this desk covers three things: how we source the data that drives our cricket coverage, how we run the win-probability model and how we publish the captain and vice-captain picks.
Where a number on the desk comes from a third party, the source is linked in the same sentence. Where a number comes from our internal model, the model is described in plain language on this page.
02 Match data sources
Match data on the desk comes from three sources. First: official match feeds from the BCCI, ICC and state associations. Second: post-match scorecards published on the same feeds. Third: the platform’s published points system, used for any scoring reference.
We do not scrape third-party bookmaker feeds. Where a third-party feed is used for cross-checking only, the cross-check is logged in the methodology footnote and the third-party feed is named.
03 Win-probability model
The win-probability desk uses a logistic regression over the last 30 completed innings in the same format. Inputs are venue-adjusted runs, average powerplay score and a captaincy-pressure surrogate.
The model is published as a single probability per fixture — a team-level win probability with a 90-percent confidence interval — and is the basis of the chart you see on the homepage and on the match pages. Predictions closer than two percentage points are tagged as TOO CLOSE TO CALL and the underlying probabilities are hidden.
04 Captain-pick framework
The captain-pick desk applies three inputs — form, role, matchup — to every fixture. A captain pick is published once the likely XIs are confirmed and the contest is open. The pick carries a role context annotation and a defended source: where a pick rests on the desk’s form data, the last-five innings are linked in the pick.
05 Player form index
The Players index tracks every player who has been in a likely XI of a desk-tracked fixture within the last 30 days. Form is the sum of fantasy points across the player’s last five completed innings in the same format.
Updates happen at the close of each fixture and again at the morning desk for fixtures the next day. Index rows are sorted by last-five form, with role as a secondary sort.
06 Correction policy
Where a published article is corrected, the correction is published as a footnote in the same article and dated. The original article version is retained for transparency. Material errors are escalated to a published note at the top of the article.
15 Frequently asked
The questions readers most often send to the desk, with answers rooted in the public editorial standards and the platform’s published terms.
What data sources do you use?
Official BCCI / ICC / state-association feeds and the platform’s published points system. We do not scrape third-party bookmaker feeds.
How is the win-probability model kept honest?
Each match-day prediction is logged before the toss with the timestamp and the published probability. After the result, we publish a calibration chart comparing all in-season calls to the actual outcomes.
How is a captain pick published?
A captain pick is published once the likely XIs are confirmed and the contest is open. The pick carries a role context annotation and a defended source: form data is linked in the pick.
How are corrections handled?
Corrections are published as a dated footnote on the relevant article. The original article version is retained.
A note from the editor
Dream11 Zone is an independent editorial desk. We are not the operator of Dream11 and we do not place bets. Real-money fantasy contests are restricted in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Odisha, Telangana, Sikkim, Nagaland and Tamil Nadu. If you are under 18, do not register. If you are in a restricted state, do not deposit. If you are in a permitted state, deposit only what you can afford to lose and use the platform's deposit limits and self-exclusion tools. Editorial standards at methodology; state rules at is Dream11 legal?; contact at contact.